C. Exports. The 1936 exports from the bizonal area were approximately RM 2.6 billion, which is estimated to represent about 1.75 billion dollars at current prices.
1. These estimates, therefore, indicate that, in addition to trade requirements for the rest of Germany, the bizonal economy will need to export to other countries at least 15% more in volume than in 1936. Since trade between the bizonal area and the rest of Germany is subject to greater uncertainty than former internal trade, the result may be to increase still further the need for trade with other countries.
2. Before the war, the broad fields of metals, machinery, and chemicals accounted for two-thirds of the total exports. Production of textiles, ceramics, and consumer goods can be raised, but the extent to which additional sales above prewar levels can be sold on the exports markets is difficult to predict. Exports from the unrestricted industries would need to be increased approximately 90% if the higher export requirements were provided entirely from the unrestricted industries, which is obviously impracticable. Therefore, the level of exports from the restricted industries will need to be greater than prewar.
[ . . . ]
III. INCREASED LEVELS IN RESTRICTED INDUSTRIES
The following determinations have been reached with respect to the industries restricted under the original Level of Industry Plan: (Note: All figures stated in reichsmarks refer to 1936 prices.)
A. Steel. Under the March, 1946, level of industry plan, steel capacity for all of Germany is limited to 7.5 million tons, with actual production in any single year not to exceed 5.8 million tons. Careful calculations show that this level would be clearly insufficient even to support the level of industry contemplated in the original plan, and it is far too low to provide for the needs of the economy under the revised plan. It has been determined that in order to support the revised level of industry in the bizonal area and to permit that area to become self-supporting, the limit of annual steel production in the bizonal area shall be fixed at 10.7 million ingot tons per annum and sufficient capacity to produce that tonnage shall be retained.
B. Mechanical engineering industries:
1. Heavy machinery industry. Sufficient capacity will be retained to produce RM 500 million, which is about 80% of prewar production. This leaves 35% of the present capacity to be removed as reparations as against 60% under the previous plan.
2. Light machinery industry. The capacity in the bizonal area is estimated at about RM 1,195 million. Capacity will be retained to produce RM 916 million, which is 119% of prewar production. This leaves 23% of present estimated capacity available for reparations, as compared with 33% under the old plan.