B. It must be borne in mind that the bizonal area already has a population at least 6 million more than in 1936 and by 1952 it may be expected to have a population from 8 to 10 million greater than pre-war. On the basis of an expected population of 42 to 44 million in the bizonal area in 1952, the per capita production capacity provided in the new plan would be approximately 75% of 1936.
C. In developing the bizonal plan, the overriding requirement has been to provide the level of industry necessary to make the area self-supporting. In determining the levels for the specific industries, for example, steel and machinery, the requirements for exports, for the internal needs of the bizonal area and for trade with the rest of Germany have been taken into account. In evaluating the requirements for trade with the rest of Germany and of imports, account had to be taken of removals of capital equipment from the other zones and Berlin. The potential output of particular industries, therefore, allows for the needs of the rest of Germany through trade, and the capacities retained for this purpose represent requirements of the bizonal area. In other words, the bizonal area, in order to be self-supporting, must obtain the products in which it is deficient either as imports from outside Germany or in trade from the rest of Germany.
II. REQUIREMENT FOR A BALANCED ECONOMY
In addition to pre-war foreign trade, the bizonal area must produce a surplus over its internal requirements for trading with the remainder of Germany; this particularly affects requirements for the industrial capacity of steel and steel products, which are the most needed and, therefore, the most dependable trade commodities required by the rest of Germany in exchange for key products essential to the bizonal economy.
A. Change in Price Relationships. World food and raw material prices have increased more rapidly than the prices of manufactured goods since 1936 and this situation seems likely to continue. Consequently, the bizonal area must be prepared to exchange in foreign trade proportionately larger quantities of industrial products in return for necessary food and raw material imports.
B. Imports in the general way. The bizonal area accounted for the whole of Germany's pre-war food deficit, as the remainder of Germany was about self-sufficient in foodstuffs. It is estimated that imports of food, seed and fertilizer sufficient to make possible an essential diet will amount to 1.00 to 1.25 billion dollars at current prices.
1. Industrial imports from other countries to the bizonal area were approximately RM 1.5 billion in 1936, which represents at least 1.0 billion dollars at current trade prices. But the altered character of German trade will make it possible to reduce this figure.
2. The invisible items in Germany's foreign trade were approximately balanced before the war. The present calculations, which make no provision for invisibles on either side of the account, may be optimistic.
3. The foregoing considerations lead to the conclusion that the total bizonal requirements from outside of Germany will approximate at least 2.0 billion dollars at current prices. Repayment of advances by the occupying powers would be an addition to these estimates.