The Occupation. Confidence in Allied efforts to rebuild Germany dropped from 43 per cent in September 1946 to only three in ten by January 1948. Confidence in American efforts to rebuild Germany, which had dropped from 70 to 44 per cent between 1945 and 1947, rose to 55 per cent in January 1948, possibly because of the Marshall Plan. No more than a third ever felt that the four powers would cooperate in rebuilding Germany; in early 1948, in fact, less than one in ten held this view.
Between January 1946 and January 1948, there was a sharp increase in pessimism regarding a united Germany as an end product of the occupation, from 71 per cent saying that the Allies would cooperate to 80 per cent saying that they would not.
Ever increasing numbers of Germans said that the United States would be the most influential country in the world throughout the next ten years and that this influence would be toward peace. Almost all who named the Soviet Union saw war as a result. Majority opinion continued to hold that the Americans ought to reconstruct Germany as soon as possible in order to prevent its falling prey to communism.
Economic Affairs. In January 1946, 67 per cent of the AMZON population said that their family incomes were sufficient to meet necessary expenses; two years later, however, only 57 per cent did so. Large majorities in West Berlin claimed that they could not meet living costs. There was no discernible trend on opinions concerning the direction which prices would take. Fluctuations also marked the trend in opinions on the future conditions in AMZON. On the whole, between January 1946 and June 1947 about as many people thought that the Reichsmark would not maintain its value as thought it would.
Increasingly large numbers of AMZON residents had come to the conclusion that a local black market existed and was serious. In February 1946, 51 per cent thought that there was no black market but by January 1948, 71 per cent recognized there was; similarly, at the earlier date only 15 per cent felt that it was serious, but by the later date 47 per cent thought so. At the same time, confidence in official efforts to stop the black market decreased sharply, although in early 1948 the trend seemed to be on the upswing once again.
Food. Increasing numbers of people cited food as their chief source of concern, having risen from only 17 per cent in AMZON in 1945 to 53 per cent in 1948. Clothing and shoes followed in importance and the percentage mentioning them had also increased. Majority opinion in AMZON continued to hold that the ration card system was being handled fairly, although the number thinking so had decreased sharply from 93 per cent in late 1945 to 64 per cent in January 1948. Majorities, often large ones, maintained that they did not get enough food to do their jobs well; in West Berlin the figure was as high as eight in ten.
Expellees. By January 1948, as many as 93 per cent of Germans held the opinion that the expulsions had been unjustified. Both expellees and native residents were almost unanimous in feeling that the expellees would like to return to their homelands. As in the previous year, about half of the AMZON population said that the expellees would get along well with the local residents and about four in ten said that they would not; Hessians were most optimistic on this score, the residents of Wuerttemberg-Baden the most pessimistic. The expellees themselves were less satisfied in January 1948 with their reception in Germany than they had been in the fall of 1946.
Source: A. J. and R. L. Merritt, Public Opinion in Occupied Germany. The OMGUS Surveys. Urbana, IL, 1970, p. 210-13.
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