New Statistics
Nonetheless, the number of gainfully employed persons living in Germany rose in January to 38.88 million. Taking seasonal effects into account, that means that there were 14,000 more employed persons than in December, as the Federal Office of Statistics reported on Tuesday. “The developments in gainful employment were favorable – as in previous months – especially through the growth in forms of employment subsidized by Hartz IV legislation (especially “Ich AGs”* and so-called supplemental jobs).” In a departure from its previous practice, the Office of Statistics no longer bases employment figures on employment in Germany but rather on residence here.
The reason for the revision, according to reports, is the introduction of new labor market statistics based on International Labor Organization (ILO) criteria. Statistics based on ILO criteria are already used in many countries. In the future, the Federal Statistical Office will use these criteria as the basis for its unemployment statistics, which are published every month alongside the Federal Employment Agency’s labor market data for the previous month. Statistics based on ILO criteria were introduced to make it easier to view German labor market developments in a comparative international perspective. According to ILO criteria, someone is employed if he or she works at least one hour a week for pay. Anyone who does not satisfy that criterion, and who is actively looking for a job, and who is available to start a new job within two weeks, is registered as “not economically active” [erwerbslos]. On account of this definition, the number of people listed as “not economically active” in the ILO statistics for January is well under the five million registered as jobless in January by the Federal Employment Agency (BA) as a result of the Hartz IV reform.
Rürup Lowers the Growth Prognosis for 2005
Economic experts put a damper on hopes that unemployment figures could drop quickly again. According to the German Council of Economic Experts, the previous prediction for the average unemployment level in 2005 – 4.38 million – is no longer tenable. “It should probably be adjusted upwards by around 50,000,” said the outgoing head of the council Wolfgang Wiegard.
Wiegard’s successor, Bert Rürup, lowered the growth prognosis for 2005. “I assume that after the drop in the fourth quarter of last year, economic growth for 2005 will only be around one percent,” said Rürup. Economic experts had originally predicted 1.4 percent growth in Germany. According to economic researcher Rürup, weaker growth means that no pronounced drop in unemployment can be expected.
* Literally “Me, Inc.”: self-employment businesses subsidized through Hartz legislation – trans.
Source: “Rekordarbeitslosigkeit. Union: ‘Katastrophaler Tag für Deutschland’” [“Record-Level Unemployment. Union Says: ‘A Catastrophic Day for Germany’”] FAZ-Net (March 1, 2005).
Translation: Allison Brown
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