But this is not very likely. Because of the Germans’ advance on the Verdun-Mézières stretch of the Meuse and [further west] in the direction of Hirson, the French will be pinned down in their positions behind the Aisne and between Reims and La Fère. These positions will not be defensible if the Germans advance on both the left flank and the rear directly from Lille-Maubeuge. The French will have to cover this flank or pull back behind the Marne or the Seine. They will be reluctant to do the latter as they will hardly want to give up northern France without a furious battle. So if they do not preserve their honor by launching a counterattack, they will probably prefer to form a defensive flank behind the Oise between La Fère and Paris as opposed to sacrificing a large, rich region, its magnificent fortresses, and Paris’s northern front. It is hardly possible to claim that they cannot take up a position behind the Oise. Since the main Belfort-Verdun line does not need to be heavily manned, the available forces will be adequate to defend the Aisne and the Oise. The front of the line behind the Oise is said not to be very robust, but to the left it abuts on a fortress that is as mighty as Paris. If the front is taken, the defenders will also pull back behind the Marne or the Seine, and the victors will be forced to encircle Paris, first on the northern front and then on the other fronts. They will be forced to continue the attack with greatly weakened forces against more powerful opponents. To lure their opponents from their positions, they will circumvent the left front adjacent to Paris and once again deploy strong forces to encircle the western and southern fronts of this colossal fortress.
This much is clear: If the French do not do us the favor of attacking us first and we must advance on Aisne, Reims-La Fère, and the Oise, we will be forced to pursue them with part of our army, regardless of whether they hold the line of Aisne-Oise, etc., or pull back behind the Marne or the Seine, etc. With another part of our army, we will be forced to bypass Paris in the south and surround this fortress. We would be well advised to make timely arrangements to cross the Seine below its juncture with the Oise and first encircle Paris on the western and southern fronts. But whatever our preparations are, we will discover that we are too weak to continue operations in this direction. We will learn the lesson of all earlier conquerors, namely, that an offensive war requires and consumes a great deal of strength, and that this strength diminishes just as that of the defenders increases – and all this in a country bristling with fortresses.
Since the active corps must remain fresh for battle, they must not be deployed for logistics service or for the encirclement and siege of the fortresses.
Once the Germans have moved up to the Oise, their military zone behind the front lines will extend to the sea coast on the right and to the Seine below Paris. In front, it will be demarcated by the Oise and the Aisne up to the Meuse below Verdun. The course of its borderline from there to the Rhine will depend on the progress made by the French on the right bank of the Mosel and other places. This zone will comprise Luxembourg, Belgium, a part of the Netherlands, and northern France. Numerous fortresses must be besieged, encircled, or placed under surveillance in this vast area. The seven and one-half reserve corps and sixteen Landwehr brigades on the left of the Mosel will be used to this end, with the exception of, at most, two and one-half reserve corps and two Landwehr brigades, which are urgently needed [to reinforce the front] and to protect the flanks and rear of the main army. (It will not be possible to leave behind an army to provide cover if the English land near Dunkirk, Calais, Boulogne, etc. Should the English land their troops and advance, the Germans will have to stop, defend themselves if necessary, eliminate a sufficiently large number of troops, defeat the English, and then continue operations against the French.)
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